Article about the reliance on modern communication infrastructure and where amateur radio can fit in.  

Published in the WANSAC (Western & Northern Suburbs Amateur Radio Club) monthly club magazine  Vol ? Issue June 2025

http://www.wansarc.org.au/

The Last Voice Standing

By Peter Miles – VK6YSF

A recent trip to Carnarvon in Western Australia to visit the Carnarvon Space and Technology Museum, arguably the most comprehensive facility of its kind in the country. Situated on the original NASA and OTC (Overseas Telecommunications Commission) tracking and communications station, the museum highlights Australia’s critical role in supporting the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space missions. It focuses on a brief but pivotal period from the early to late 1960s, when ground-based radio and satellite communication systems developed for telemetry, tracking, and voice links with spacecraft.

Photo 1 Carnarvon Space and Technology Museum - Full size replica of the Apollo 11 Lunar Lander.

While exploring the legacy of these groundbreaking systems, from analogue telemetry receivers to parabolic tracking antennas, I was reminded of how far communications technology has come. The visit provided a compelling contrast between the pioneering techniques of the space race and the sophisticated digital and satellite systems we are developing today.

On the journey north from my home in Northam (near Perth), I had the pleasure of meeting a couple in Geraldton who were sailing up the West Australian coast. While they were in port, Pete VK6PK and I joined them aboard their yacht for a meal of freshly caught groper. Naturally, the conversation turned to nautical topics and particularly to communications at sea.

To my surprise, their ocean-going vessel was not equipped with a HF transceiver. When I asked the skipper about this, he immediately pointed to the Starlink antenna mounted near the stern. He explained that Starlink had become his primary means of communication, and he had no intention of returning to HF radio.

I was genuinely impressed that during lunch, he was able to check and respond to several business emails with ease and this, he said, was standard practice even when they were well out at sea. The level of connectivity offered by satellite broadband far exceeds what traditional marine HF systems can provide, especially in terms of bandwidth and reliability for data services. According to him, this shift toward satellite internet, particularly via systems like Starlink, is becoming increasingly common in the sailing community.

I understand that the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race now mandates satellite communication for all participating vessels, I would guess that this would be Starlink, effectively displacing traditional HF radio as the primary means of long-range communication.

Peter, VK6PK, who has operated a HF base station for the annual Variety 4WD Bash, shared with me the growing presence of Starlink systems on many vehicles in recent years. According to Pete, future events will be moving away from HF radio entirely, with Starlink becoming the mandatory communication standard for all participants.

While Starlink undoubtedly enhances safety and practicality, especially in remote or emergency scenarios, I reckon it’s not quite the remote experience and certainly not as much fun. Mayne just me.

Starlink antennas are now a common sight across rural Western Australia and they’re becoming increasingly visible even in my hometown of Northam despite having a solid NBNCo network. While traditional broadband and mobile phone providers often claim coverage over 99% of Australia, however in reality, what they mean is 99% of the population, which corresponds to under 30% of the landmass. In contrast, Starlink can legitimately claim a 100% geographical coverage, with theoretical service extending to nearly the entire surface of the Earth, including remote inland areas and vast oceanic regions.

While the theoretical Starlink framework supports near-global coverage, practical deployment is subject to regulatory restrictions from various countries including China, Russia, Belarus, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea. Also the presence of ground stations is essential for network backhauling.

The implications are profound as Starlink has the potential to routinely save lives, perhaps even without users realizing it. In remote areas, where conventional communications fail or don’t exist, access to broadband connectivity can mean the difference between a minor incident and a fatal incident. The system is proving invaluable not just for remote workers and travellers, but also for emergency services and communities responding to natural disasters, such as bushfires, floods, or cyclones.

Starlink’s portable, near-global, high-speed broadband service is truly transformational in a country as vast and sparsely populated as Australia. It represents a solution to the tyranny of distance that has long defined rural and outback life. Only a few years ago, this level of connectivity was unimaginable without complex and costly infrastructure. Today, it’s available in a compact, user-friendly package that can be deployed in minutes.

As of mid-2025, Starlink's residential internet service remains its largest revenue generator. This dominance is attributed to a rapidly expanding global subscriber base, particularly in underserved and rural regions where traditional broadband options are limited. Analysts estimate that residential subscriptions account for the majority of Starlink's revenue, with projections indicating significant growth in the coming years.

However, the landscape is evolving fast with services like Starlink's Starshield program, which caters to government and military clients and has emerged as a significant revenue stream. Reports suggest that Starshield and related services contribute nearly a quarter of Starlink's total revenue, amounting to approximately $2 billion. Given its rapid growth trajectory, Starshield is poised to potentially surpass residential services in revenue contribution in the near future.

Additionally, Starlink is making inroads into the mobility sector, including maritime and aviation services. By the end of 2024, Starlink had installed terminals on 450 aircraft, up from 80 in 2023, with contracts for 2,000 additional aircraft. The maritime segment also shows promise, with 75,000 vessels and 300 cruise ships equipped with Starlink services.

This ground-breaking and disruptive technology is rapidly rendering many older systems, such as HF radio, legacy satellite services, and terrestrial networks either redundant or obsolete, even as some of those technologies reach their peak performance. The choice now rests with the user: based on cost, reliability, mobility, and ease of use, that choice is now as much a social revolution as it is a technological one.

At the back of my mind, while marvelling at the capability and flexibility of Starlink, is a lingering concern: are we putting all our communication eggs in one basket? The Starlink constellation of satellites may be safely positioned in low Earth orbit, far above the storms, bushfires, and earthquakes that challenge terrestrial infrastructure, however are there weaknesses in the marvelous Star Link satellites in orbit.

On this I posed the question to my good friend ChatGPT.

So, what are the effects of solar activity, such as solar storms and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Starlink satellite system?

While Starlink’s infrastructure orbits well above Earth’s weather systems, it remains vulnerable to "space weather," particularly the effects of heightened solar activity. Solar storms release charged particles and electromagnetic radiation that can interfere with satellite electronics, on-board software, communications systems, and even the Earth's ionosphere, all of which can affect satellite operation and signal reliability.

One of the most telling demonstrations of how vulnerable satellite systems can be to solar activity occurred in February 2022, when a geomagnetic storm caused the premature deorbiting of 40 out of 49 newly launched Starlink satellites. These satellites had just been deployed into a relatively low parking orbit, where initial system checks were being conducted before they were to be raised to their operational altitude. However, the geomagnetic storm heated and expanded the upper atmosphere, a well-documented effect that increasing atmospheric drag dramatically. Unable to overcome this resistance, the satellites lost altitude and re-entered the atmosphere, burning up within days.

Beyond atmospheric drag, solar activity can affect satellites and communication systems in several other critical ways. During intense geomagnetic storms, the ionosphere becomes highly disturbed, which can severely degrade or even completely block high-frequency radio and GNSS (1-2 GHz GPS etc) signals. This poses a significant risk not only to satellite internet services like Starlink but also to aviation, navigation, and emergency communications.

The high-energy particles released during solar flares and coronal mass ejections can also interfere with the electronics aboard satellites. Even a single charged particle can flip a bit in memory, trigger a system reset, or in some cases cause lasting damage if components aren't adequately shielded. The more intense the event, the greater the likelihood of multiple simultaneous system faults across a constellation.

There’s also the matter of orbital traffic. As satellites respond to increased drag or attempt to maneuver around potential debris caused by storm-related satellite failures, the risk of in-orbit collisions rises. With thousands of satellites operating in low Earth orbit, any miscalculation or communication delay can lead to accidental collision, potentially triggering a chain reaction of debris.

To their credit, Starlink satellites are equipped with on-board autonomy, redundancy, and real-time tracking systems to handle many of these challenges. SpaceX also closely monitors space weather and works with agencies like the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre to time launches and manage satellite operations accordingly. However, no satellite system, no matter how advanced, is entirely immune to the powerful forces unleashed by the Sun.

Photo 2 NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of a solar flare on Oct. 2, 2014. Credits: NASA/SDO

As revolutionary as Starlink is in delivering fast, global broadband, it operates within an environment that is still governed by space weather. The Sun remains a wild card that remind us just how delicately balanced our high-tech systems truly are.

In September 1859 the most powerful solar storm ever recorded occurring, known as the Carrington Event. A massive solar flare and accompanying coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth, causing spectacular auroras visible near the equator and widespread disruption of telegraph systems of the day.

If an event on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event were to occur today, it would pose a serious and potentially crippling threat to the Starlink satellite system, along with much of our modern space and communications infrastructure.

One of the most immediate impacts would be a dramatic increase in atmospheric drag. A coronal mass ejection of that magnitude would rapidly heat and expand the Earth's upper atmosphere, significantly increasing its density at the altitudes where Starlink satellites orbit at around 550 kilometres. This sudden atmospheric swelling would place enormous stress on the Starlink satellites constellation. Many satellites, especially those recently launched and still in lower orbits awaiting their final orbital position, could be pulled down prematurely and burn up upon re-entry similar to the 2022 event that led to the loss of 40 Starlink satellites in a single day, a Carrington-class storm could cause losses on a much larger scale.

Beyond drag-related issues, the intense radiation from such a solar storm would pose a severe threat to the electronics onboard every satellite. High-energy particles from the Sun can interfere with memory, disrupt processors, and permanently damage critical components. While Starlink satellites are designed with some degree of shielding and redundancy, their lightweight design, a necessity given the scale of the constellation limits the extent of radiation hardening. A significant portion of the network could experience outages, malfunctions, or even total failure.

Communication itself would also be disrupted. Starlink depends on high-frequency radio waves in the Ku (12 to 18 GHz) and Ka (26.5 to 40 GHz) bands to communicate with ground stations and between satellites. These signals must pass through the ionosphere, which would become highly unstable during a major solar storm. The resulting interference could degrade or completely block communications, leading to interruptions in service even if the satellites themselves remained intact. Further complicating the situation, GPS signals that are vital for satellite positioning and network coordination would also be affected, causing navigation and synchronization issues.

While Starlink is a space-based system, its dependence on ground infrastructure makes it vulnerable in other ways. A Carrington-scale storm could induce powerful geomagnetic currents in Earth's surface, damaging transformers and other critical components in terrestrial power and communication networks. If power grids or other links connected to Starlink’s ground stations were to fail, the system could suffer from a complete service blackout, regardless of satellite condition.

The chaos would not be limited to communication loss. With many satellites needing to make rapid orbital adjustments to compensate for drag, and ground-based tracking networks potentially degraded by solar interference, the risk of orbital collisions would rise significantly. Although Starlink satellites are equipped with automated avoidance systems, a widespread event of this nature could overwhelm both on-board decision-making and ground control oversight.

In summary, a solar storm on the scale of the Carrington Event would likely cause the loss of a substantial number of Starlink satellites, potentially lead to a temporary or even extended global outage of the service, and have a ripple effect across multiple sectors that rely on satellite and power infrastructure. Recovery would be complex, expensive, and time-consuming. The incident would underscore a hard truth: that even our most advanced, space-based technologies remain vulnerable to the forces of nature.

While the Carrington Event of 1859 remains the most powerful solar storm ever recorded in modern history, scientists acknowledge that even more intense solar events are possible and some geological and historical evidence suggests they have occurred in the past.

These extreme solar storms could unleash vastly greater amounts of charged particles and electromagnetic energy toward Earth, far surpassing the scale of the Carrington Event. Such “superstorms” could have catastrophic consequences for satellites like those in the Starlink constellation.

In the case of an event more intense than Carrington, the atmospheric drag on low Earth orbit satellites would increase dramatically, causing widespread, rapid orbital decay and the loss of potentially hundreds or thousands of satellites in a very short time frame. This would not only degrade global broadband coverage but could create a cloud of debris, increasing the risk of collisions and generating a cascade effect known as the Kessler Syndrome, which could make certain orbital regions unusable for years or decades.

Furthermore, the surge of high-energy particles would pose an even greater threat to satellite electronics, overwhelming existing shielding and redundancy measures. Many satellites could suffer permanent damage, leading to mass outages and a protracted recovery period. Communication signals could be disrupted for longer durations, and ground infrastructure could face severe geomagnetic-induced disturbances, including widespread power grid failures.

The cumulative effect would be a near-total loss of space-based internet service for an extended period, along with secondary impacts on navigation, weather forecasting, and other satellite-reliant technologies.

While such extreme events are rare, their possibility drives ongoing research into space weather forecasting, satellite hardening, and the development of backup communication systems. For operators like SpaceX, building resilience into their constellation through rapid satellite replacement, orbital manoeuvring strategies, and enhanced radiation shielding is essential to mitigating the risks posed by these powerful natural phenomena.

Ultimately, the potential for solar superstorms reminds us that while technology can push the boundaries of connectivity and capability, nature’s forces remain a powerful factor we must respect and prepare for.

A solar superstorm more intense than the Carrington Event could be profoundly devastating to human activity and the global economy. Our modern world is deeply reliant on satellite-based systems not just for communications like Starlink, but also for GPS navigation, banking, power grid management, aviation, shipping, and even emergency services.

Economically, the consequences would ripple worldwide. Industries dependent on just-in-time delivery and real-time data, like manufacturing, retail, logistics, and finance would face severe delays and losses. The aviation industry could see extensive flight cancellations due to loss of GPS and communication, while maritime operations might revert to older, less efficient navigation methods. Repairing and replacing damaged satellites and power infrastructure would cost billions, and full recovery could take years.

In short, a solar superstorm of this magnitude would cause a cascade of failures across technological, economic, and social systems, highlighting our vulnerability to space weather and the critical need for robust mitigation and preparedness strategies.

For this reason, a diversified communications strategy combining modern satellite broadband with legacy systems like HF radio and geostationary satellite services remains a prudent approach, particularly for mission-critical and emergency applications.

Radio amateurs — I’m looking at you. When constructing your stations, particularly HF, whether fixed-base or portable, consider building in independence and resilience. Aim to be at least partially self-reliant, minimizing dependence on external infrastructure such as the internet and the commercial power grid. While modern systems like Starlink offer outstanding performance and convenience, they are ultimately part of a centralized, high-tech network that as we've explored is vulnerable to disruption from solar storms and other systemic shocks.

The reality is that we’ve allowed an enormous amount of critical communication to consolidate into a handful of technologies. It’s fast, seamless, and efficient, but brittle in the face of extreme natural events. Should a major geomagnetic storm hit, much of what we take for granted could fall silent in an instant. In such a scenario, amateur radio, especially HF communications remains one of the few truly global, decentralized, and resilient forms of communication.

That’s why I’m rethinking the way I approach my own station. The challenge I’ve set for myself is to adopt a more prepared, more self-reliant design philosophy. This means incorporating off-grid power sources like solar and battery systems and making sure I can operate without the internet. It’s not about rejecting new technology, it’s about building systems that can function through failure, rather than being disabled by it.

There’s real satisfaction in knowing that your station can operate autonomously. That in a crisis, whether local or global, you can still get a message out, or receive one. It’s a mindset that goes back to the roots of amateur radio: experimentation, resilience, and service to the community. And it’s one I believe we should take seriously, not just as a backup plan, but as a responsible and meaningful part of the hobby.

After all, when the lights go out and the satellites go silent, it may be the humble HF station, with its humming generator, wire in the trees, and a skilled operator at the mic that becomes the last voice standing.

Photo 3 Star link antenna

Also don’t attach your vital Star link antenna with a bunch of cheap Bunnings cable ties.

References:

Basu, S., & Groves, K. M. (2001). Specification and forecasting of scintillations in communication/navigation links: Current status and future plans. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 64(16), 1745–1754. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(01)00093-6

ESA. (n.d.). Radiation effects on satellites. European Space Agency. https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Space_weather_and_satellites

Fuller-Rowell, T. J., & Codrescu, M. V. (1997). Thermospheric response to geomagnetic storms. Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, 59(5), 517–524. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(96)00122-5

Kessler, D. J., & Cour-Palais, B. G. (1978). Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt. Journal of Geophysical Research, 83(A6), 2637–2646. https://doi.org/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637

NASA. (n.d.). NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program. NASA. https://nepp.nasa.gov

NASA. (n.d.). Space weather. NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/spaceweather

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. (n.d.). NOAA SWPC home. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov

SpaceX. (2022, February). Update on February 3 Starlink launch. SpaceX. https://www.spacex.com/updates

Space.com. (2022, February 9). Geomagnetic storm doomed 40 new SpaceX Starlink satellites. https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites-lost-geomagnetic-storm

Carnarvon Space and Technology Museum. https://www.carnarvonmuseum.org.au/

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Page initiated 04 July, 2025

Page last revised 24 July, 2025